The state agency charged with forecasting water conditions in California said Thursday residents must be prepared for both dry conditions and flood risks over the coming year.
The Department of Water Resources previewed the “water year” beginning Oct. 1 by drawing attention to both the record hot summer across much of California and a looming La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean that typically results in drought.
The agency said there is no precipitation in the current forecast, but what water California does receive will arrive from more powerful storms, and hotter temperatures will mean less winter precipitation falls as snow and more will arrive as rain, increasing the flood risk.
While Lake Oroville, the State Water Project’s largest reservoir, is currently at 101% of average for this date, the latest outlook from NOAA’s Climate Predication Center shows a 71% chance of La Niña conditions emerging this fall.
“California has experienced the full range of climate challenges in recent years from extreme drought to severe flooding and we will be seeing more of that in the future,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “To meet these dramatic challenges, California is starting this water year with more accurate forecasting and additional investments in flood protection and groundwater recharge.”
DWR said it is working with local partner agencies to take an all-of-the-above approach to creating a resilient water supply in the face of a changing climate. This includes:
- Better data collection to more efficiently manage reservoirs
- Floodplain restoration and flood infrastructure projects
- Improving groundwater basins to take advantage of flood waters
“California experienced record heat and dry conditions this summer, drying out the landscape and putting our hydrology behind before the water year even starts,” said State Climatologist Dr. Michael Anderson. “While there is still a lot of uncertainty around how La Niña could impact the state this year, we know we can count on it to include extreme conditions.”